Yes, Virginia, There Was a Wave.

For the past decade, Trump has brought the Republican Party massive success, as long as he’s on the ballot.  However, during the years Trump hasn’t appeared on the ballot, the Democratic Party has used opposition to Trump and his policies to energize its base and secure significant victories.  But with a President that sucks all the oxygen out of every gold-embossed room he’s in, is that still the case?  Are “off-year” elections or midterms still operating under the same dynamic when a party is 100% in line with the presidency?

Last week’s US mid-term elections were, to put it bluntly, a bloodbath for Republicans. While the widely expected Democratic win in the New York City mayoral race garnered the most headlines, the defining story is the magnitude of Republican losses nationwide. A last-minute quasi-endorsement of Cuomo by Trump narrowed the city’s margin somewhat, but the true takeaway is Republicans’ underperformance across the board.

Moving across the Hudson River from New York to New Jersey, Congresswoman Mikie Sherrell beat her Republican opponent, Jack Ciatterelli, by 14 points. This was about two to three times the margin polls showed at the race's end. The 2021 race was much closer. The incumbent Democratic Governor Phil Murphy won over Ciattarelli by only 3 points. The 2024 election also showed some weakness for Democrats, as Kamala Harris only won the state by less than 6%—down from Biden’s 16% margin of victory. Pundits cited the Trump administration’s tariff scheme as a major factor; New Jersey is a major port for New York City.

Turning to Virginia, a similar result unfolded, although there was little doubt the Democratic nominee, Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger, would win; the question was by how much.  Polls never suggested a Republican victory, but concerns that the shy-Trump effect could turn a 5-point poll into a slight Republican win.  In the end, Spanberger won by a similar margin as Sherrell, 15 points, by not only increasing her margins in vote-rich Northern Virginia but also the Richmond area, all the way down to the large military population around Norfolk. Every state showed a swing to the Democrats, but massive swings in the DC area suburbs as tens of thousands of furloughed federal workers and contractors used their forced day off to vote.

Besides electing their first female governor, a position that can trace its roots back to Thomas Jefferson, Virginians elected Ghazala Hashmi for Lieutenant Governor, the first Muslim woman to win a statewide office in the United States.  The ticket's coattails were strong enough to bring embattled Democratic nominee for Attorney General, Jay Jones, across the finish line with a 5-point margin of victory.

Those Democratic gains translated to historic wins in the Virginia House of Delegates, with Democrats gaining 13 seats and expanding their majority from 51-49 to 64-36.  On the legislature's agenda for 2026: redistricting their Congressional map to counter similar efforts in Republican-held states to gerrymander the results of the 2026 midterms.

Despite attempts to downplay these outcomes by framing them as inevitable wins in blue states, the scale and breadth of Democratic victories—including in purple and red-leaning states—defy simple explanations. The remarkable margins and historic flips illustrate a sweeping rebuke of Republican candidates, even in races where previous elections suggested closer contests. The main point is not just that Democrats won, but how thoroughly and unexpectedly they did so.

There were two Republican victories in Florida to note, both held in the House.  Florida’s First District held an election to fill the vacancy caused by Matt Gaetz's premature resignation as he was preparing to become Attorney General.  His replacement, Republican Jimmy Patronis, won by half the margin that Gaetez had just last year.  An identical story played out in Florida’s 6th District, where Mike Waltz left Congress to join the Trump administration, with his replacement receiving the same margin of victory.

If that level of enthusiasm persists through 2026, then it’s likely that no amount of gerrymandering will protect the House’s Republican majority, and the Senate could also likely flip.  

T he results also played into the Democrats’ “big tent” strength.  A Democratic Socialist, a former CIA analyst, and a former US Navy lieutenant all won their contests.  Mandani won in New York but would not have won in Fairfax, Virginia.  Spanburger cleaned up along the DC Beltway but likely wouldn’t have won Manhattan or Brooklyn.  This shows that the party's variety can be helpful, not a hindrance, when winning local or even statewide races.  A one-size-fits-all or national policy approach simply will not work.  As long as the elected officials are largely on the same page on the bigger issues, then that is enough to have party cohesion.  Allow disagreements on how we achieve those policies, but agree on the same goal.  

Trump admitted the results were bad, claiming Republicans suffered because he wasn't on the ballot. Though technically true, the Party has been reshaped around Trumpism. Fiscal responsibility is set aside for Trump’s preferences—like defending a ballroom or decorating the Oval Office. Cabinet meetings and press events focus on praising Trump. The Party’s shift is so complete that politicians even adopt Trump’s favored attire: blue suits with long red ties.

It's also a reason why Democrats have relented and voted to reopen the government.  30 years ago, the minority party could negotiate with the majority because there was a separation between the Senate and the White House, even when both were controlled by the same party.  However, today, Trump’s will is the Senate’s will.  Matters of principle become obstinate if you know the outcome will never change.

This Republican alignment with Trump means every election is, in effect, a referendum on his brand. Unless Republicans distance themselves from Trump’s divisive traits, their fate will continue to rise and fall alongside his. The party’s identity is now indistinguishable from Trump's, making Republican performance in any election inseparable from perceptions of him.  Trump demands 100% obedience to him and his policies to secure his endorsement.  If you step out of line, expect a derogatory post on social media, and the door to the Republican base will be closed.

Until his grasp on the party loosens, and there’s no guarantee it ever will, then every election will be interpreted as a referendum on him.  

In short, Trump is on the ballot whether he likes it or not.