Going Dutch

A glimmer of hope for the centrist dads out there (at least the centrist dads who follow European politics). Last week, the Netherlands held a snap election and, surprisingly, returned to the mean, with the centrist-liberal D66 party—known for supporting progressive social policies and EU integration—claiming victory, while the former right-wing PVV – led by anti-Islam, nationalist ideologue Geert Wilders – lost 11 seats.

First, some background. The previous Dutch parliamentary election in November 2023 saw Wilders’ Party for Freedom (PVV) win 37 out of 150 seats, earning it the right to lead government talks. As seen in other Western democracies post-COVID, the incumbent coalition—four center and center-right parties—suffered losses. The resulting government shifted further right, bringing PVV and the agrarian/populist BBB into roles for the first time.

Coming from a deeply entrenched two-party state, I find the presence of comparatively hyper-niche parties like BBB intriguing, even when I disagree with their policies. But back to the story…

Even though Wilders’ PVV party secured the most seats, he did not secure the post of Prime Minister, stating, “ I can only become the prime minister if ALL parties in the coalition support it. That was not the case.”  Eventually, it was agreed that none of the coalition parties’ leaders would become PM, and the role was offered to former intelligence minister Dick Schoof.   PVV also did not secure any major ministries for itself at the beginning, except for its raison d’être: the Ministry for Asylum and Migration.  This is what we call “foreshadowing”

Flashforward to May 2025.  Wilders presented a 10-point plan for new asylum measures, including rejecting all asylum seekers and returning them to their home country, including Syrians who were already in the Netherlands on temporary visas.  After a few days, it became apparent that not even the other parties in the coalition were willing to take Dutch migration policy to that extreme, and Wilders withdrew his party from the cabinet, forcing new elections because an alternative government partner was impossible.

Last week, Dutch citizens returned to the polls for the second time in less than two years, and polling was incredibly volatile during the campaign period: PVV fell off a cliff in just a few weeks, while D66 leapfrogged several other parties to move from fifth to a tie for first place.  In the end, they gained 17 seats with 16.89% of the vote, compared to the PVV, which dropped 11 seats with 16.76% of the vote.

What does D66, or Democrats 66, stand for?  D66 is a centre-left, socially liberal party and a part of the centre-right ALDE and Renew Europe party groups within the EU.  This progressive, pro-European Party has been led by Rob Jetten, who, if selected as Prime Minister, will be the youngest and first openly gay Prime Minister in Dutch history.  Like other left-aligned parties across the West, they find most of their support with college-educated, urban voters such as those in Amsterdam and The Hague.  Jetten’s campaign evoked an Obamaesque het kan gedaan worden or “it can be done”.  

A sharp contrast to Wilders’ famous tweet stating “We hebben een serieus probleem" which I’m sure you can figure out without translating.

D66 projected optimism, in stark contrast to the hostility of right-wing populists. The idea that 'freedom is only real when everyone has the opportunity to truly be free' recalls a time when politics aimed to elevate, not pander. Jetten prioritized housing and democracy, shifting slightly right by focusing less on climate and more on immigration.

This tactic seemed to speak to Dutch voters, who are tired of political instability and polarization after years of government infighting and Wilders’ Trumpian personality politics. They did just enough to draw centre-right voters by mentioning immigration failures, but didn’t make it the cornerstone of their manifesto, and turned off those on the centre-left.  They spoke to the real concerns of Dutch voters:  housing, rule of law, and the economy.

But it wasn’t all sunshine and roses – or tulips, I suppose, in this scenario.  While PVV did lose about 7% of the vote relative to 2023, other right-wing parties like BBB gained 6 seats compared to the last election, a sign that Dutch voters are still receptive to those policies, even if PVV isn’t the party to enact them. It’s also a highly fractured result, with D66 “winning” with the lowest vote share in Dutch history.  In short, there is no consensus, and whatever grand coalition that will eventually govern the Netherlands will be held back from groundbreaking policies, it may be a glorified caretaker government in all but name.

But I am hopeful that a message similar to Jetten’s campaign can resonate in other Western democracies.  Voters are becoming exhausted by endless campaigns and demagoguery. Jetten has shown that there are people out there looking for a better tomorrow, and they’ll listen to politicians willing to paint a picture that’s not just about blaming the other side.