Be-Labouring the Point

Now we come to the United Kingdom. For the past decade, I've been infatuated with British politics. From the Shakespearean tragedy of Brexit to the rise and fall of Johnson (and Truss), it's been an Oscar-winning level of drama. The 2025 United Kingdom local elections have unveiled a significant transformation in the nation's political landscape, characterized by the precipitous decline of the Conservative Party and the concurrent rise of Reform UK. While many commentators were predicting the inevitability of Nigel Farage in 10 Downing Street at the next election, I'm not so sure.

What is true is that this shift reflects a broader trend observed in other democracies, such as Canada and Australia, where center-left parties have experienced electoral success. "But Michael, didn't the right-wing Reform UK win many things?" Yes. But it wasn't necessarily at the expense of the governing, centre-left Labour Party. 

Let's take a step back to three years ago. Prime Minister Boris Johnson was on the way out, and the governing Conservative Party membership elected Liz Truss to be Prime Minister. This, to put it lightly, was a disaster on every level. Truss only served for six weeks before she lost the confidence of her own party and would have been out sooner if politics took a back seat during the Queen's funeral. Afterward, Rishi Sunak took the reins and led a generally inept government followed by an even more inept campaign. After lockdown parties, economic crashes, and calling an election during a downpour, the British people chose the opposition led by moderate Keir Starmer to form a government.

Last summer, the Labour Party won 411 of 650 constituencies. Given the intricacies of first-past-the-post elections in an actual multi-party state, Labour received 63% of the seats in Parliament with only 33% of the vote, with many former Conservative voters choosing Liberal Democrats (to punish the Conservatives over their myriad of scandals without rewarding Labour) or the newly formed Reform UK, lead by right-wing populist Nigel Farage as a socially conservative response to protest immigration and demographic changes.  This is been referred to a "wide, but not deep" victory.

Massive influence in the House of Commons but without a true popular mandate.

Last month was the first large-scale test of not only the governing Labour Party, which has been languishing in the polls since last August but also the former "natural party of government," the Conservatives, now led by Kemi Badenoch, who has chosen an opposition American-style form of politics. Thanks partially to this, the Conservative Party suffered substantial losses, forfeiting 676 council seats and control of 16 councils. This outcome represents the party's poorest performance in over two decades, with its vote share plummeting to 15%, a historic low. These results underscore the party's ongoing struggles to maintain its traditional base and adapt to the evolving political landscape.

Who benefited? Reform UK experienced a meteoric rise, securing 677 seats and taking control of 10 councils, including significant gains in areas like West Northamptonshire. This surge is unprecedented for a party that previously held no local council seats, signaling a profound shift in voter sentiment. Reform's success can be attributed to its appeal to disaffected voters seeking alternatives to the established parties. Internal divisions, leadership challenges, and a perceived disconnect from voter concerns have eroded public confidence in the Conservatives. The party's stance on issues such as housing, immigration, and public services has been criticized as out of touch, leading to a loss of support among traditional constituencies. Additionally, the emergence of Reform UK has siphoned off right-leaning voters dissatisfied with the Conservatives' direction.

Reform UK's rise is also indicative of a broader fragmentation within British politics. The traditional two-party system is being challenged by emerging parties that resonate with specific voter demographics. Reform's focus on issues like government efficiency, opposition to net-zero policies, and a strong stance on immigration has attracted voters seeking decisive action and clear policy positions. However, are these winning policies in a country where Trump and Musk have only 16% and 30% approval, respectively?  

Does that, or Labour's decline in seats in the local elections, spell the end of Starmer's government? Not necessarily. British voters tend to vote against the government in local elections. A year after Tony Blair's landslide victory in 1997, Labour lost 88 councilors, a further 1,150 the following year, and 574 the year after that, and went on to secure another landslide victory in 2001. Likewise, the Conservatives lost a net of 890 local elections when they were in government in the early 2010s and went on to win the subsequent 2015 election. 

Interestingly, Nigel Farage's UKIP party won 166 council positions in the 2014 local elections. That translated into zero victories in the 2015 general election. 

This political realignment in the UK mirrors global trends. In Canada, the Liberal Party, under Prime Minister Mark Carney, secured a victory in the 2025 federal election, reflecting a preference for center-left policies amidst economic challenges. Similarly, Australia's Labor Party, led by Anthony Albanese, achieved a significant victory in the 2025 federal election, emphasizing progressive agendas on climate change and healthcare. These outcomes suggest a global shift toward center-left and populist movements driven by public demand for responsive and effective governance. Right-wing parties are finding differing levels of success by adopting Trumpian rhetoric. While this failed to benefit the Canadian and Australian right, Romania's right wing came within millimeters of victory last week, with Poland's right-wing eking out a victory in their Presidential elections. 

The 2025 UK local elections mark a significant transformation in the political landscape, characterized by the decline of the Conservative Party and the rapid rise of Reform UK. This shift reflects broader global trends favoring center-left and right-wing populist movements as voters seek alternatives to traditional parties in response to evolving societal and economic challenges. The implications of this realignment will continue to shape the UK's political trajectory in the years to come. If Starmer can improve his comms (call me Keir) and stick to his plans of making the difficult, unpopular decisions early, then there's still a good chance Labour can win again in 2029.