Coalitions of the Unwilling

The United States is famously bipolar in its politics, and always has been. George Washington lamented the rise of political factions in his farewell address, as pro-Federalists and anti-Federalists had already begun to coalesce into distinct groups. Since then, as one party declines in popularity, another party rises up to replace it. The two American parties can also flip positions, as the Republican Party from Lincoln to the civil rights era was largely liberal with its power base in the Northeast and American West, while the conservative Democrats dominated politics in the American South from the Civil War through Nixon’s southern strategy.

While the UK does have some experience in coalitions, they have not been entirely successful. The most recent example was the Cameron-Clegg government, a Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition from 2010 to 2015. Every political faction was frustrated by the inaction inherent in compromise, and that frustration caused Cameron to promise a Brexit referendum in order to gain support from Eurosceptic Conservatives. In the following election, Cameron was rewarded, the Liberal Democrats were harshly punished for working with a perceived political opponent, Brexit happened, and everything is working out fine for the British people today.

David Cameron and Nick Clegg enter Downing Street in 2010.

And now France. Encore, encore, et encore, France. I don’t even know where to start here. Since I last wrote about French President Emmanuel Macron on September 9, there have technically been three French governments! Zut alors! Former Prime Minister Bayrou resigned after failing to pass a budget. Marcon then appointed his Minister of the Armed Forces, Sébastien Lecournu, who resigned on October 6 and was replaced…with…himself on October 10.

Lecournu ‘s October 6 resignation was due to large swathes of the French political spectrum vowing to oust him just hours after he announced his ministers. In an effort to calm the waters, he promised to punt proposed unpopular pension reforms until after the 2027 presidential election, which earned him a motion of no confidence from the left-wing France Unbowed, even though the leader of the Socialist Party called the reform delay a victory, and whose party largely abstained from the vote, leading to its failure.

France is a hybrid of both the American and British systems. It has a strong President that is elected on the national level (US), but also a Prime Minister that forms the government that is beholden to the confidence of the lower house (UK). One key difference regarding coalitions is that the French legislature features party groups, or groups of smaller, similarly minded parties that form a loose union.

The increasingly isolated French President Macron

While this has been a feature of French politics for some time, it has only been since the election of Macron in 2017 that it was the primary feature, as the old major parties of the Left (Socialists) and Right (Les Republicans) have collapsed. At first, Macron’s La République en Marche was able to form a stable, ostensibly centrist government thanks to Macron’s coattails, but as his popularity waned, so did the party’s. His party returned 266 of 577 deputies in 2017 but only 170 in 2022. When Macron called a snap election in 2024, his party suffered even more setbacks, winning only 99 seats and forming an unstable minority government with three other partners and with political enemies that are just as large on the right and left. This is the background the French find themselves in today. They’re locked into a three-way battle for the future of the French state.

One objection to this madness has been that Macron should simply choose a left-wing Prime Minister, as they were the largest bloc. This is one course of action, at least it would be different than the somewhat insane tactic of going over the same thing over and over again with the same legislature. However, the left is on record saying they would blow up Macron’s entire agenda, which isn’t what you’re supposed to say in a job interview. Additionally, leading figures from the French left are highly Eurosceptical along the lines of the old socialists' objections to protecting French workers - another issue for the Europhile Macron.

Then there’s the math. When taken as a whole, the left only received a few more seats than the centrists, 180 compared to 159 from the centre. It likely would not be much more stable than the merry-go-round of centre and centre-right governments Macron is attempting, as it would face objections from the centre, centre-right, and right wing. The opposite would be true for a far-right-wing government. The National Assembly is essentially split equally between three factions, who all disagree on most things and all think the situation would be different if in power.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz (centre) with Coalition Partner and Vice Chancellor Lars Klingbeil (front right)

And now Germany is seeing the same signs. The right-wing Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is now polling higher than the centre-right CDU, mere months after the election that saw the CDU return to government after several years of opposition. With immigration remaining a very hot topic across the EU, AfD has a good chance of winning the next election as it continues to cannibalize CDU voters.

Meanwhile, the German left is split across the centre-left SPD, Greens, the left-wing Die Linke (creatively named “The Left”) and a new left-wing BSW. On paper, the right and left each command about 50% of the German public, and German cultural norms have caused AfD to be largely ostracized from decision-making.  However, like in the other states I’ve profiled, the left is fractured across more parties than the right.

What makes Germany different from the other large Western powers is that Germany has a history of governing through coalitions, meaning that different parties often put aside smaller differences to form a functioning government and parliamentary majority. This can serve as a sort of release valve, as parties and their voters are accustomed to the ancient political art form of compromise. Neither the United States, the United Kingdom, nor France has this in their political memories, and as such, the major parties’ bases all lament any negotiation as tantamount to treason.

While France and Germany along with last week’s UK and US all present slightly different cases to study, one similarity across all three is how the political left in all states turns the guns inward. While left wing parties operate under the “bigger the tent, the better” for electoral success, their voters are increasingly turned off by policies that don’t reflect their worldview.  The voters prefer purity over complexity and more and more are becoming disengaged, or worse, actively voting against parties best positioned to advance some, if not all, of their policy goals in order to prove a point. Macron is stubbornly doing the same thing, except he’s closing the tent.

The reality of geopolitics rarely trends on TikTok. American left showed tepid support for Harris, and the British left has largely rejected Starmer, largely due to foreign affairs beyond their control like Gaza and Ukraine. The German SPD-led government saw only 3 months on top before a surge of Green support and an insurgent BSW party dropped them to third in this year’s election – their worst showing since 1887. And finally, France, which has seen its entire political establishment implode twice in the past decade.

Western democracies aren’t falling apart, but you can see the seams. The instinct to reach across a divide, to treat disagreement as part of the process, is fading. Germany still does it out of habit. France and Britain tried, quickly lost their appetite, and walked away. America never learned the skill in the first place.

The right doesn’t need unity, only purpose. The right puts victory first and solutions later. The left wants consensus on every issue before getting elected. Compromise is still possible within the party, but compromise between the left and right is harder to achieve as they drift further apart.

The right has learned this. It’s time for the left to as well.