There’s Something About Macron

All of this has happened before...

Let’s take another jaunt across the Atlantic to another politically volatile state: France.

France operates under a semi-presidential system. Emmanuel Macron was elected to his second and final term in 2022. Presidential elections are decided in two rounds, with the top two candidates advancing. While this guarantees a clear majority for the winner, it also punishes a fractured opposition. In 2022, a divided left allowed the contest to narrow to Macron, the self-styled centrist, and Marine Le Pen of the far-right Rassemblement Nationale (RN). Voters returned Macron by 17 points. A solid victory by many standards, but weaker than his 2017 landslide, when he defeated—who else—Marine Le Pen by a two-to-one margin.

Legislative Instability

The real turbulence arrived with the 2022 and 2024 legislative elections. In 2022, Macron’s Ensemble alliance won the largest bloc of seats but fell 44 short of a majority, leaving France with a three-way split: Ensemble in the center, the left-wing NUPES coalition, and a right divided between Les Républicains and RN.

Hoping to reset the board, or at least stem the bleeding, Macron called a snap election after RN’s gains in the 2024 European Parliament elections. The result? More of the same — another three-way stalemate, this time with RN consolidating the right.

The Revolving Door of Prime Ministers

Since then, Macron has appointed three Prime Ministers. Michel Barnier, the Brexit veteran from Les Républicains, lasted just 99 days before being toppled by a no-confidence vote — the first to end a French government since 1962. François Bayrou, leader of the centrist MoDem party, met the same fate, brought down by left-wing resistance to austerity and a right-wing bloc that refuses to cooperate.

Today, Macron has turned to Sébastien Lecornu, his Minister of the Armed Forces, as the latest centrist choice. Few expect Lecornu to fare any better when budget debates resume.

A Coalition That Cannot Exist

Could Macron hand power to the left? On paper, the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) has a claim. However, NFP is not a single party, it is an unstable alliance of 50 parties — 22 of which are represented in the National Assembly — held together mainly by shared opposition. Its largest faction, led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, is openly skeptical of the EU and NATO, making cooperation with the famously hawkish Europhile Macron nearly impossible. The French left is also famous for infighting and the 2022 alliance was dissolved due to internal friction

Turning to the right would be just as combustible. RN is polling around a third of the electorate — too small to govern, too large to ignore. Appointing a Prime Minister from their ranks risks mass unrest in the streets.

Which leaves… more centrists, destined for repeat no-confidence votes.

The Bigger Picture

This gridlock raises questions beyond France’s borders. Can Europe count on France as a stable partner in NATO or EU decision-making when its government changes every few months? What does persistent fragmentation say about the resilience of the Fifth Republic’s institutions? And how long can a political system designed for two blocs function in a three-way deadlock?  This doesn’t even mention elephant in the room, the 2027 Presidential election.  What will happen to one of the EU’s wealthiest and most powerful members if the French elect a Eurosceptic as president?  What will happen to NATO if one of its most hawkish European allies elect a nationalist opposed to intervention?

The Least Bad Option

Macron’s choice to keep cycling through centrists is less strategy than survival. It avoids the immediate implosion that would follow from appointing a hard-left or hard-right government. But it also highlights the limits of France’s political architecture — and the fact that Macron may be running out of options. With his own party only polling at 15%, would be electoral suicide. Which begs the question - is there even a future for Ensemble after he leaves office?

Perhaps that’s the most telling part of this saga. Macron’s “least bad” option might be the only option France has left.